The possibility of Australia's Macquarie acquiring Terna Energy is gaining ground and many in the market believe that it will not be long before official announcements are made.
Both the jump in stock prices in the last six months (+43%), despite negative market sentiment, as well as confirmation of company talks with reliable investors, indicate that after Motor Oil acquired Ellaktor’s Anemos, another deal - much bigger this time - in the field of clean energy is just around the corner.
The recent Anemos deal acts as a benchmark, even though it is an unlisted company, as it was absorbed by Ellaktor. The current market capitalization of Terna Energy, which is listed, amounts to 2 billion euros. The latest acquisitions in the RES sector in Italy (Falck) and Spain (Eolia) were made at 14 times EBITDA. In this case, Terna Energy's valuation will rise to 2.3 billion euros. If, on the other hand, we take into account NBG Securities’ report for the company, which gives a 25-euro target price for the share, the valuation soars to 2.8 billion euros.
Analysts estimate that, in the case of Terna Energy, the current market capitalization of 2 billion euros is a fair valuation, with the stock trading at 17.3 euros, for an installed capacity of 900MW. Still, they claim that we may see higher prices, close to 20- 21 euros per share, if the new projects launched by the company are included. That is, a valuation of between 2.3- 2.4 billion euros for 100% of the shares. They also add that Terna Energy's dividend, involving some 40 million euros per year offering a dividend yield of some 2 percent, should not be ignored.
Goals and risks up to 2029
On investor day at the beginning of the week, Terna Energy’s management stressed that by 2025 its installed capacity will reach 3.3 GW and by 2029, 6.4GW. Ιnvestments of 2.3 billion euros will be required for the first step, and an additional 3.6 billion euros for the second. In the full development of the installed capacity, the group's EBITDA will amount to 700 million euros.
If the deal between Macquarie and Terna Energy goes ahead, the big winner will be the GEK Terna Group, which controls 37.3% of Terna Energy. The revenues that GEK Terna will receive from the sale of its stake will allow the group to seamlessly carry out important projects it has undertaken - public and private - and which have raised the backlog to 4.9 billion euros.
Giorgos Peristeris will be able to consolidate his position as the largest shareholder of GEK TERNA Group, by selling his 11% stake in Terna Energy. Shipowner Vangelis Marinakis will also benefit, as he had acquired 6% of Terna Energy a year back, at a much lower valuation than the current one.
Australia-based Macquarie is the world's largest infrastructure asset manager, that manages more than 737 billion dollars. In Greece it became known from the acquisition of 49% of HEDNO (Hellenic Electricity Distribution Network Operator), while it also participates in a joint venture that is bidding for Attiki Odos.
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