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National Bank sees deeper than expected Q2 recession at -16%

Εstimates which are driven by official announcements regarding the course of the economy in May, air arrivals at the Athens International Airport in June, as well as data from the May current account balance.

The Greek economy is expected to have entered deep recession in the second quarter of 2020, according to an analysis by National Bank, which examines a series of factors in order to reach the above conclusion.

According to its analysis, forecasts for the contraction of GDP in the second quarter range from -13.5 percent to -16 percent, estimates which are driven by official announcements regarding the course of the economy in May, air arrivals at the Athens International Airport in June (in which restrictive measures on air connections were partially lifted), as well as data from the May current account balance.

As highlighted, these indices recorded a weak recovery trend, mainly in the services sector, while on the other hand, manufacturing performed better, with the PMI index strengthening to 49.4 points in June from just 29.5 which was in April.

In addition, there was a stabilization of net employment flows in June in the Ergani system, as well as an increase in demand for electricity.

"Therefore, annual GDP contraction in the second quarter is estimated to be around 16 percent versus an initial estimate of 13.5 percent, with the recession, however, in June being significantly milder (-7.7 percent from -17.3 percent n May)", the report says.
 

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